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Thread: By the Numbers

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    Arrow By the Numbers

    Hey all,

    I wasn't sure if anyone has done this yet but I went ahead and looked at the sales of Tomb Raider (2013) across the five platforms it's available on and did some number crunching. Sadly, I used VG Chartz as I don't know where else to look for the numbers but I found some numbers to back the percentage of the fanbase that is pissed about the Microsoft deal. Keep in mind that given my source these numbers may not be 100% accurate but they are more than likely really close.

    First, the worldwide numbers sold as of Oct.12th, 2014, in millions of units:

    PC - 0.27
    360 - 1.72
    X1 - .19
    PS3 - 2.28
    PS4 - .59

    I don't think this includes digital sales which is probably why the PC number is so low.

    Next the individual percentages of each system's sales from the total game sales of 5.05 million sold:

    PC - 5.4%
    360 - 33.6%
    X1 - 4.2%
    PS3 - 41.9%
    PS4 - 14.9%

    Next, the system camps put together; again, PC is probably a higher number if digital sales were included:

    PC - 5.4%
    Xbox - 37.8%
    PlayStation - 56.8%

    Yeah...

    ... Lastly, let's look at the percentage of potential fans or at least buyers excluded from buying Rise of the Tomb Raider on day one...

    PC + PlayStation = 62.2%

    A staggering percentage of the fanbase has been spit on by this deal. I have to wonder if Square or CD even bothered looking at the numbers.

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    they must have looked at the numbers in their bank account which was generously given by M$.

    certainly interesting numbers. who knows how things will be when the rise comes out.
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    I'm sure they did. Someone had to have seen that red flag go up at some point, which could be why it's a timed exclusive and not 100% exclusive. At the end of the day tho, video game companies are a business, and business is all about $. A necessary evil.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Telekill View Post
    Hey all,

    I wasn't sure if anyone has done this yet but I went ahead and looked at the sales of Tomb Raider (2013) across the five platforms it's available on and did some number crunching. Sadly, I used VG Chartz as I don't know where else to look for the numbers but I found some numbers to back the percentage of the fanbase that is pissed about the Microsoft deal. Keep in mind that given my source these numbers may not be 100% accurate but they are more than likely really close.

    First, the worldwide numbers sold as of Oct.12th, 2014, in millions of units:

    PC - 0.27
    360 - 1.72
    X1 - .19
    PS3 - 2.28
    PS4 - .59

    I don't think this includes digital sales which is probably why the PC number is so low.

    Next the individual percentages of each system's sales from the total game sales of 5.05 million sold:

    PC - 5.4%
    360 - 33.6%
    X1 - 4.2%
    PS3 - 41.9%
    PS4 - 14.9%

    Next, the system camps put together; again, PC is probably a higher number if digital sales were included:

    PC - 5.4%
    Xbox - 37.8%
    PlayStation - 56.8%

    Yeah...

    ... Lastly, let's look at the percentage of potential fans or at least buyers excluded from buying Rise of the Tomb Raider on day one...

    PC + PlayStation = 62.2%

    A staggering percentage of the fanbase has been spit on by this deal. I have to wonder if Square or CD even bothered looking at the numbers.
    And the fact that many 360 owners have made the jump to PS4 and would probably rather buy ROTTR on PS4 instead of 360 and the % of Playstation customers left out on day 1 is probably even higher.

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    Yeah, the numbers will be even more skewed since people are buying less and less games on PS3/360. Now we can expect PS4/X1 to be the big sellers. I'm not even sure supporting 360 will make any sense at end of 2015.

    For action games, we can expect PS4 to sell 2 to 3 times more than X1 due to the makeup of the fans.

    I hope RoTR will come out on PS4 & PC in early 2016.

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    Hey thanks for putting this together. I was going to do my own search as for the numbers in sales for the Reboot.
    I am certainly curious as to what led to this decision, obviously besides the money, because it seems that they counting on all being forgotten knowing that everyone will get over the "betrayal" and buy ROTR as soon as it hits other platforms. Of course this is exactly what will happen but it still leaves a sour taste in my mouth. I just hope for the sake of future TR this isn't the route they choose to go again.
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    360 & PS3 will fade in 2015, and PS4 has a 3:1 lead in Europe where Tomb Raider is most popular.

    My prediction if RoTR wasn't an Xbox exclusive would probably be closer to this:

    PS4 - 60%
    X1 - 20%
    PS3 - 10%
    PC - 5%
    360 - 5%

    Ofcourse with special promotion on X1, it will do better on X1 now, but basically a majority of fans will be left out in holiday 2015.

    Hope SE will make it up to us with a definitive edition on PC & PS4 later.

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    Its difficult to view these figures as an indication for the future viability of RotTR, or in fact any game. There are many variables at play which means they can be problematic to use as a benchmark.

    TR2013 was a much anticipated title and while the PS3 version sold more than X360 the numbers weren't poles apart. We are already seeing the start of the end of the last gen games (eg Forza Horizon 2 - no DLC, different game elements, Assassins Creed - different games for last-gen and new-gen), although I predict it will be a slow process. It is reasonable to predict that last-gen games sales will fall, however there are a lot of new PS3 and X360 owners out there enticed by the price cut, game bundles and the fact that the Wii and Wii U have dropped out as an option for a lot of people (one example being the unavailability of Lego games on those consoles). The last-gen games sales therefore are difficult to quantify in the next year.

    The PS4 has been streets ahead of the Xbox One in terms of console sales. TR: DE was one of the first quality games to enter the next-gen marketplace and was likely a post-Christmas purchase for a lot of new new-gen console owners. This means a massive disparity when comparing future PS4 to XB1 sales because of the early adopter phase of the console life. The initial early adopter period is over and the market place is stabilising somewhat. There are more games out there that are defining each console. The casual buyer, who may not consider frame rates and resolution etc, will start to take an interest prompted by the games that are out there and the marketing of each company. Outages on PSN and problems like the current Drive Club debacle will balance out the sins of MS that are fading in public consciousness. Popular games like FIFA 15 and COD will overshadow the technical aspects of the consoles. Popular exclusives like Forza Horizon 2 that get critical acclaim will help to shift units too.

    This Christmas will be an important one for both PS4 and Xbox One. Sales of both consoles will be massive this year. In the UK we are seeing dramatic pricing offers already. One example being this weekend where the PS4 was available for 289.99 (from 349.99) and the Xbox One at 309.99 including 1 game (from 349.99 without a game). MS are chipping away at the marketplace and the Xbox One is gaining ground, albeit little by little and IMO PS4 will lead for sometime to come.

    I think that the console marketplace in 2015 will look very different from that of 2014. I would suggest that June/July would be a good time to predict the potential sales of RotTR. Its arrival in October/November is just when the Christmas market starts to hot up again after the summer period where traditionally sales dip. This is where MS will hope to gain more sales heading into Christmas by splashing RotTR all over the place and taking a view of the marketplace at this point will give a better indication of the impact of the MS/SE deal.
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    @Tecstar70

    I think you completely missed the point of the thread. I didn't post the numbers to discuss how the next game would sell on next gen systems or how it was a good deal for Microsoft and that it will push X1 systems. The numbers were posted to illustrate potentially how much of the fanbase is left in the dust with the deal.

    However, had I been talking about another subject mentioned above your post would be very nicely done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Telekill View Post
    @Tecstar70

    I think you completely missed the point of the thread. I didn't post the numbers to discuss how the next game would sell on next gen systems or how it was a good deal for Microsoft and that it will push X1 systems. The numbers were posted to illustrate potentially how much of the fanbase is left in the dust with the deal.

    However, had I been talking about another subject mentioned above your post would be very nicely done.
    Thanks! Fair point, but as a proportion of the market place there is the possibility that there will be a smaller proportion "left in the dust" by the time release date comes around. To add to that, some people will own both consoles by that time as well. SE need RotTR to do well on the XB1 or it won't do well on the PS4 - the larger console customer base (currently).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Telekill View Post
    First, the worldwide numbers sold as of Oct.12th, 2014, in millions of units:

    PC - 0.27
    360 - 1.72
    X1 - .19
    PS3 - 2.28
    PS4 - .59
    With the PS3 and Xbox 360 numbers by the time the next TR after this one comes out there probably won't be previous gen ports. That mean the key numbers is that 3:1 ratio PS4 to X1 and 1.5:1 for PC. Even if Xbox resurges it can't see it catching up. Throw in the fact that the TR is very established around PS and PC as well with the classics and it tips it a little further.

    If it was looking pretty even like PS3/X360 then it's daft to overlook the other side but when Xbox 1 is trailing it's an even worse call.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tecstar70 View Post
    SE need RotTR to do well on the XB1 or it won't do well on the PS4 - the larger console customer base (currently).
    If most of us hold out and the game sells more towards that 3:1 ratio then the bigger success for ROTTR will come later and that will be the crucial time for success or fail. It would a great thing for TR if PC and PS still get stronger showings to show CD they got it wrong.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GemmaDarkmoon View Post
    If most of us hold out and the game sells more towards that 3:1 ratio then the bigger success for ROTTR will come later and that will be the crucial time for success or fail.
    Agreed. This game WILL sell on Xbone, and will probably be viewed as a success to Microsoft. But yeah, the real test of the success will be when the deal is up, and it's available everywhere else. There will be people who buy it, despite the disrespect handed down by CD/Square, but the question is how many? I honestly think this game is going to be one of, if not perhaps THE, biggest turning points in the TR series. It's already going to be known as "The Slap Herd 'Round The World" in the TR history.

    And who's to say the wait will go unrewarded? Remember when 'RE:4' came to PS2 after having been GameCube exclusive for awhile and it had extra missions and new weapons as a compensation for PS2 owners?
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    This game is going to sell but, crying about it doesn't make things better you know but, didn't this happen like 5 times with the other tomb raiders like unfinished business, golden mask, and lost artifact back in the day. Where those games were only exclusive to pc?

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    Quote Originally Posted by WinterSoldier View Post
    Agreed. This game WILL sell on Xbone, and will probably be viewed as a success to Microsoft. But yeah, the real test of the success will be when the deal is up, and it's available everywhere else. There will be people who buy it, despite the disrespect handed down by CD/Square, but the question is how many? I honestly think this game is going to be one of, if not perhaps THE, biggest turning points in the TR series. It's already going to be known as "The Slap Herd 'Round The World" in the TR history.

    And who's to say the wait will go unrewarded? Remember when 'RE:4' came to PS2 after having been GameCube exclusive for awhile and it had extra missions and new weapons as a compensation for PS2 owners?
    The number that could be the crucial one is the percentage of gamers and TR fans who are unhappy and have lost faith.

    Quote Originally Posted by hipeople5100 View Post
    This game is going to sell but, crying about it doesn't make things better you know but, didn't this happen like 5 times with the other tomb raiders like unfinished business, golden mask, and lost artifact back in the day. Where those games were only exclusive to pc?
    I always hoped Golden mask and Lost Artefact would come out in digital downloads on PS3 and Xbox as I think many who already have the gams would buy them again for that. They were only DLC though not main game and perhaps not quite as strong as the included levels.

    Crying about it may not have much effect but CD/SE need to know how much against this everyone is so maybe 18 months away they have the perception of just how jinxed that money that will be on offer then actually is.

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    Yes, I loved it when RE4 came to PS2 with the extra chotchky's and goodies ...especially the PRL-412 laser weapon. I recently got the HD rerelease on PS3 (I believe it released on 360 as well), and it played beautifully, and looked great.

    (I really appreciated the fact that when RE4 came to PS2, it was against the wishes and whims of RE's creator, Shinji Mikami (I believe. Heck, I get all them Japanese developers mixed up anymore, LOL), who apparently had become a GameCube fanboy, and seemed to feel that RE4 could ONLY be executed on the GameCube.

    And in addition to that, now we have the HD remakes of Resident Evil --also once a GameCube exclusive in Standard Definition back before HD's really started taking hold-- coming to all the major platforms in early 2015. FINALLY! It would seem that many of The RE games that were under the thumb of Nintendo finally got out from under them. Within the last couple of years, we saw the releases of The Darkside Chronicles and Umbrella Chronicles, both once Wii exclusives, come to the PS3....and I had a feeling that at least that would happen with PS3's Move controller. Now, after YEARS of waiting, the remake of RE leaves GameCube exclusivity, and comes to all the major consoles soon-ish, in HD remakes.)
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    I have noticed that there are currently a number of Xbox One bundle deals available at varying price points. These include:
    Fifa 15
    White console with Sunset Overdrive
    Destiny
    Forza Horizon 2
    Call of Duty : Advanced Warfare
    Alien Mega Pack
    Halo: Master Chief
    GTA V
    Minecraft
    Minecraft & Alien:Isolation
    Minecraft & Forza Horizon 2
    Minecraft & Forza Horizon 2 & COD: Ghosts
    The Evil Within & Shadow Of Mordor
    Fifa 15 & Call of Duty : Advanced Warfare

    Now its reported that there will be an Assassins Creed bundle too, containing AC4: Black Flag and AC:Unity.

    There are some heavy-weight bundles at great price points. My perception (in the UK at least) is that there are a lot more varied bundles than with the PS4, and at lower prices. Now whether you think this is a great example of the desperation of MS or is clever marketing that gives the customer a choice of a good deal is up to you, but it doesn't change the fact that this will help to shift consoles this Christmas and beyond. I am not suggesting that it will outsell the PS4 but in 2015 there is likely to be a heck of a lot more XB1 owners than there were both this year and last year, meaning that as an AAA title RotTR will be finding its way into a lot of peoples stockings come Christmas 2015.
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    Lots of people will get the game. It's just sad that 62% of the fanbase will be left in the cold.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Telekill View Post
    Lots of people will get the game. It's just sad that 62% of the fanbase will be left in the cold.
    62% as of October 12th 2014.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tecstar70 View Post
    62% as of October 12th 2014.
    That really isn't going to change much, not to mention what Xbox owner is going to pick up Tomb Raider next year when they've got another COD and Halo 5 ? Most Tomb Raider fans are PC and Playstation gamers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Murphdawg1 View Post
    Most Tomb Raider fans are PC and Playstation gamers.
    And with PS releasing that smexy white edition as a standalone console, who would choose an Xbone!?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tecstar70 View Post
    62% as of October 12th 2014.
    Microsoft would do wel to bring you aboard. You sympathize far too much with the deal in my blunt opinion. I understand playing devils advocate, but I've noticed you make it a point to attempt and shoot down every opinion that expresses dislike towards Microsoft and the deal. Fans are upset, and I think 62% will stand in October 2015 as well... Unless they announce the deal was a joke, not everyone is going to rush out and buy an Xbox based on what I've read.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaraRocks2 View Post
    Microsoft would do wel to bring you aboard. You sympathize far too much with the deal in my blunt opinion. I understand playing devils advocate, but I've noticed you make it a point to attempt and shoot down every opinion that expresses dislike towards Microsoft and the deal. Fans are upset, and I think 62% will stand in October 2015 as well... Unless they announce the deal was a joke, not everyone is going to rush out and buy an Xbox based on what I've read.
    Maybe I am not as emotional about TR as some people. I love TR games and have played them since TR3 but at the end of the day its game, and I can play the other TR games if I like. I DO get why people are so passionate as I get just as passionate about other things too, but when logic is ignored I try to include it. I don't see it as sympathising with the deal rather posing a different viewpoint. When people say that it doesn't make sense and its a stupid strategy I try to point out why MS/SE think it DOES make sense.
    Case in point the 62% figure quoted. You may be right - 62% MAY be the figure come fall 2015, but IMO that can't be transferred forward today because of the reasons I stated. Using 62% as an immovable figure is wrong. i was just pointing out that it is a reasonable figure to state at this point in time and that figure is likely to change because of the overall strategy of MS.

    You are absolutely right that there are people who are not going to rush out and buy an XB1 because of the deal. You have to acknowledge that the people on this kind of forum AREN'T the main target for this kind of deal although there will be SOME hardcore gamers who do buy systems for exclusive games.

    People with PS4 and PC have every right to be pissed off, but in some sense I am pointing out the positive aspects. While the deal may suck it is more unreasonable to think that it will NEVER come to PS4/PC or even that it's release will be delayed for too long after Christmas 2015. I believe that despite all the angst that is displayed by fans a lot of people WILL go out and buy it for PS4 and PC when it is released. On forums such as this you will see the acute views of people who genuinely won't buy it or will buy it second hand but my belief is that this will be a minority of the overall marketplace and therefore will not dramatically impact sales.

    FWIW my choice to continue with MS, moving from the X360 to XB1, wasn't based on undying brand loyalty or MS fanboyism. I waited almost a year to go next-gen. I looked at what my friends were playing on, what games were expected, what I liked about the Xbox environment and what the PS4 was offering and despite the fact there was a lot of things I really liked about the PS4 (and some of the exclusive games) the XB1 ticked more boxes for me personally so it wasn't blindly following MS to next-gen (in fact at one point I nearly bought a PS4!).

    That probably means that I talk about what I know, and not having a PS4 means that I don't feel able to talk about it in the same way but when it comes to the MS/SE deal I look at it from a business perspective - ie: what is trying to be achieved and is it likely to succeed. Companies make decisions for good reason. They may not always be the right decisions as MS@E3 2013 shows, but neither party wants this deal to fail and therefore they must have had a good reason to do it in the first place. If they piss off a large proportion of the fanbase but both XB1 and overall RotTR sales increase by the end of 2016 than the deal is going to be seen as a success by both parties. That is the truth and if that hurts anyone's sensibility then i'm sorry, but having a pop at me for pointing it out isn't going to change that. It doesn't make it right or invalidate anyone's feelings on the topic but that's the reality of the situation. I understand that I may not be able to calm peoples anger and seem unsympathetic, but there are enough people doing that already and my brain seems to flip to the other side of an argument. (I probably have a thing for supporting the underdog - maybe that's another (unconcious) reason I bought an XB1!!)

    I hope I haven't upset anyone - that's not the intention of this post!
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    Apologies for the double-post but the last one was rather longer than expected!

    Quote Originally Posted by Murphdawg1 View Post
    That really isn't going to change much, not to mention what Xbox owner is going to pick up Tomb Raider next year when they've got another COD and Halo 5 ?
    Well I don't play COD or Halo and don't intend to buy either so that is a bit of a dramatic assumption to make about Xbox owners. I WILL however be picking up RotTR.

    Quote Originally Posted by Murphdawg1 View Post
    Most Tomb Raider fans are PC and Playstation gamers.
    In actual fact according to the OP, most TR fans are PS and Xbox gamers. PC gamers are a tiny minority. To break that down a level, most TR fans are Xbox 360 and PS3. The new-gen marketplace is still in a state of flux so who can say where these numbers will be come autumn 2015?
    Last edited by Tecstar70; 10-16-2014 at 07:05 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tecstar70 View Post
    When people say that it doesn't make sense and its a stupid strategy I try to point out why MS/SE think it DOES make sense.
    I would say that deal makes perfect sense to MS. To buy some control over what is probably the best rival to Uncharted. Paying money to stop PS and PC gamers getting to play the new game this Christmas to sell more consoles is a bit of a nasty thing to do. It's not like TR is a platform centred series like if you want Mario you know a Nintendo console is best. In fact if TR was that way then it has far more ties to both PS and PC than Xbox. Much as it makes sense for MS, the deal is the reason we are not happy so buying an xbox is like paying the school bully.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tecstar70 View Post
    While the deal may suck it is more unreasonable to think that it will NEVER come to PS4/PC or even that it's release will be delayed for too long after Christmas 2015. I believe that despite all the angst that is displayed by fans a lot of people WILL go out and buy it for PS4 and PC when it is released.
    I and most others will buy it when it comes to the other consoles. Why would I not? That doesn't change that that CD have treated those who support TR real awful. It's not just making the deal, it's about not telling us when the exclusivity is over, it's about being indirect with every phrase. In their statement they try to make DE and Lara Croft and the Temple of Osiris as though that's an equivalent consolation to ROTTR, don't give any straight answers in the Q and A thread here and then say they didn't intend to mislead with GamesCon. Their I love MS type language is saying we are going to treat you worse in future to the rest of us. Is like owning a supermarket, throwing food at any customer not wearing red and still expecting people to come and buy from you. I have to think the impact would have been far less if they had been upfront.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tecstar70 View Post
    That is the truth and if that hurts anyone's sensibility then i'm sorry, but having a pop at me for pointing it out isn't going to change that. It doesn't make it right or invalidate anyone's feelings on the topic but that's the reality of the situation. I understand that I may not be able to calm peoples anger and seem unsympathetic, but there are enough people doing that already and my brain seems to flip to the other side of an argument. (I probably have a thing for supporting the underdog - maybe that's another (unconcious) reason I bought an XB1!!)

    I hope I haven't upset anyone - that's not the intention of this post!
    Surely MS can never be considered an underdog. I have bought PS consoles before there was Xbox and always liked them so I don't see any reason not to go PS4 at Christmas. I have been a huge TR fan since the 90's too and don't consider choosing a PS4 conflicts with that. If I did take the massive step of switching across there is still 2/3 of us not playing the game this Christmas so that isn't a win. I don't see this as a lost cause or something to give up on. Maybe CD will see our concerns, say no deal next time and re-focus on moving TR forward with all our consoles without prioritising one. Much as the finances are one thing anyone at a games developer wants their product and brand to be liked.

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