Everyone has an opinion II

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

thegrommit
Member

Registered: Oct 2003
Location:



quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by The_Legendary_Solid_Snake
My exact words are: " just over 60,000 people that could have purchased Thief III for close to $50." Key words: "could have."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The implication being that a significant percentage of them would have - hence your not-so-subtle inclusion of the $3M figure.

Your calculations conveniently assume:

(a) the game sells for $50 at retail - I bought mine for $35
(b) Eidos get the full benefit of that notional $50 - so no profit for Best Buy, or the distributor, or any other middle men?
(c) support costs for those Win9x users would be the same as everyone else - a single support call @$30/hour can be enough to wipe away whatever profit you just made on that sale.

As for Krwawy Lew - XP Upgrade costs about US$100. To install it, all you need is to insert the CD from the OS you're upgrading from. It doesn't even have to be installed on the target machine. There is no functional difference between the "full" and "upgrade" versions.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Apparently I give people too much credit; see, I assume that if I didn't mention the expenses stricken from the tallied profit (by-the-by I believe I mentioned in my last thread "I keep it simple"), people would still see my point on the actual profit gained by supporting the OS in question. I believe I did mention that there are roughly 300 million people in the US -- and just in case thegrommit wants to dissect that -- please keep in mind I am trying to state that if all these 300 million people had a computer, not everyone would have XP and 2000.

I am not saying they would all have 98SE. What I continually try to portray is that if there are 300 million people with computers at the very, extreme least, 20 million would still currently be using windows 98SE. And though I bought my Thief III game for $50, let us insert the $35 (Christ that's cheap) into this new equation. Again assuming that people can realize that I am now using extremely low figures, now making it possible to state that all expenses are now paid off and these figures are strictly profit gained, the total earned is: 20,000,000 people X $35 = $700 million.

"But wait," you say "you are assuming that these 20 million 98SE users all bought Thief III..." Why, yes I am. That's an excellent point. In that case lets drop the number (again understanding that all expenses are paid and this is profit gained -- because we already paid for the added expense in the last equation). In that case let's say out of the 20 million, only a mere 4 million 98SE users bought Thief III. What is that? 4,000,000 X $35 = $140 million. Holly Christ checks! $140 million with all OT, middleman, support and happy horse**** expenses paid! That's incredible. Oh, wait a minute... I was told that kind of money wasn't worth the extra time it would take to adapt 98SE to the application. It is only $140 million total profit -- I think I understand?

I guess my argument is misunderstood by today's youth. Basic business: never turn down a potential customer and always make them happy. Happy customer = continued business = no more friendly forum fun. I do want to mention one other thing. I realize that the forum moderators are not Eidos employees and this is in no way directed at them. Furthermore, my argument is not aimed at any member of this forum.

As I said before, all comments are welcome (just please don't make vulgar comments at me just because I want to state my opinions. If you disagree with me just say so nice and friendly like -- and curse at your monitor, not at me).

[sycotiksid]

oww my eyes. Use paragraphs... jeez

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

I'll keep that in mind next time Mr. syksawids..... um... How is that pronounced? Anyway, thank-you for your observation.

[TheBoss]

You can just edit your post and fix it :cool:

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

Thank- you TheBoss, though I already knew that, I neglected to do so because of the "tone" in Mr. syksawids' reply. But since you are the first one on this forum (to date) that has not given me an ill-mannered response, I will respectfully edit my initiation post.

[bravus]

...and while you're at it, you may want to do something about the length of your nick, it's breaking the look of the forum. ;)

So you're saying one in five of all computer users in the US with a particular operating system are going to buy this game? I think that's an *extremely* suspect assumption, albeit one Eidos/Ion Storm would have wet dreams about.

But if your assumption held, then one in five users of XP and 2000 would *also* buy the game. I can't quite figure out where you came up with your numbers, but some stats I've seen suggest about 5% of Windows users currently use 98/Me. That would mean 20 times as many users of XP/2000 as of 98/Me, for 400 million in the US. As you can see, that's impossible, suggesting your numbers are a bit bogus.

Say there are 180 million computer users in the US (stats suggest about a 60% take-up rate). Of those, probably 75% would be using Windows XP or 2000 - the remaining 25% is made up of Linux, Mac and older versions of Windows.

Of those, a huge number are business users or various other kinds of non-gamers, or people who play only The Sims or sport games (or download music or porn). I'd say perhaps 20% are FPS-type gamers, and that's generous. Now assume that maybe 40% of FPS gamers buy Thief DS (again a high estimate). So 40% x 20% x 75% x 180 million = 10.8 million. That's still a massive over-estimate, but let's run with it.

Your profit figures are vastly too high - say $10 per game, and that's still way high, by the time you factor in transport, packaging, wholesale and retail markups, etc. So, a total profit of $108 mill. The potential profit from Win 98/Me, at 5% of that, would be $5.4 million. Nothing to be sneezed at, granted, but, well, it's still only 5% of the total. And throw away all my assumptions and come up with different ones, but it's *still* only 5% of the total.

Factor in extra programming and support costs, and also the fact that the game would require heaps more code to look crappier, because there are no current 98 drivers for ATI cards, and you see that the decision that was made makes a lot of sense.

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

Thank-you for your reply bravus. But, my numbers were already ridiculously low and I already mentioned that "extra support" and "programming" cost (programming cost would fall under my category of happy horse****) was taken into account of my, again mentioned in my previous threads, equations. Furthermore, no I didn't say 1 in 5 would buy this game -- I said at least. Because I also said that at least 20 million out of 300 Million would have the OS in question. So 1 out of 5 ( or even 1 of 5 0f that: 800,000 people) with this OS would buy Thief III. And to say that out of 4 million at least 800,000 would buy the game is entirely accurate. It is more than feasible to state that at least 800,000 98SE users would buy Thief III if it was supported. That's just US windows 98SE users. Anyway you cut-it, just as many videogame producers see it, windows 98 still brings in enough profit to justify the extra programming. (800,000 X $35 = $28 million -- still astronomical)

Regardless of the meaningless spouge I am spewing, though these numbers are not forged in stone, you can be sure that the numbers would be much bigger in scope (not lower). As for my nick -- sorry, Metal Gear for NES was the first videogame I ever played -- so I'm a big fan. All the other Solid Snake nick combinations I could think of at the time was taken. Again, thank-you for your reply.

After reading this over I can see why people are getting confused. I keep taking away numbers to raise other values without stating what exactly the hell I am doing. So let's do one final math problem -- straight up. From the previous mentioned to say at least 800,000 Win98 users would buy Thief is accurate, given all my other previously mentioned B.S.. So let's use 800 k people. This time I will use $3 as the profit gained (with any other expenses taken out -- I think it is at least entirely feasible to state that one person that buys one game will give the company {not the middleman} $3 -- since a new game is general $49.99 ). That is 800 k X $3 = 2.4 million. I am not trying to play math teacher. If anyone reads my other posts they will see what this is all about. I'm just trying to say that a business is telling me to spend an extra $200 just because they don't want to put forth some extra effort. They say I should understand that, because the time spent isn't worth the money to be earned. I am trying to convey that these low numbers (which would no doubtfully be higher) say that they are misled. And companies today have to realize once again that you try to make the customer happy, not the other way around.

[jrsein]

How can a post have a tone. He just said his eyes hurt and asked you to use paragraphs...my eyes hurt.

[thegrommit]

Originally posted by The_Legendary_Solid_Snake
Thank-you for your reply bravus. But, my numbers were already ridiculously low and I already mentioned that "extra support" and "programming" cost (programming cost would fall under my category of happy horse****) was taken into account of my, again mentioned in my previous threads, equations. Furthermore, no I didn't say 1 in 5 would buy this game -- I said at least. Because I also said that at least 20 million out of 300 Million would have the OS in question. So 1 out of 5 ( or even 1 of 5 0f that: 800,000 people) with this OS would buy Thief III. And to say that out of 4 million at least 800,000 would buy the game is entirely accurate. It is more than feasible to state that at least 800,000 98SE users would buy Thief III if it was supported. That's just US windows 98SE users. Anyway you cut-it, just as many videogame producers see it, windows 98 still brings in enough profit to justify the extra programming. (800,000 X $35 = $28 million -- still astronomical)

Regardless of the meaningless spouge I am spewing, though these numbers are not forged in stone, you can be sure that the numbers would be much bigger in scope (not lower). As for my nick -- sorry, Metal Gear for NES was the first videogame I ever played -- so I'm a big fan. All the other Solid Snake nick combinations I could think of at the time was taken. Again, thank-you for your reply.

As this thread is likely to be locked again, I'll keep my response short.

The number of PC games that sold twenty million copies can be counted on one hand (http://www.ps2home.co.uk/eidos_interactive.htm) (and thats for all versions) - and Thief isn't going to be one of them. For context, the original Deus Ex sold two million copies - and that only after it was ported to the PS2. Most games are lucky to sell a million copies. I suggest you take a look through Eidos financial reports (http://www.eidosinteractive.co.uk/corporate/annual_report.html) before spouting off again.

Here's a quote from the 2003 report:


In total, 12.5 million units were shipped in the year, compared to 12.1 million units during the 15 months to 30 June 2002.


That 12 million is spread over 27 games. You do the math.

[edit] And this may be food for thought:


Overall, the group recorded a profit after tax of £19.2 million compared to a loss of £30.7 million for the 15 months to 30 June 2002

[JVieira]

Wow.. there are still people moaning about the Windows 98 thing. As if they really think it's actually going to make a difference. How utterly futile. Get over it please? It's not going to change.

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

How could he say anything when he typed the words on the post? Descriptive remark? Literary license? Call it what you will and thank-you for your reply.

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

I did thegrommit, please read my post again: 800,000 X $3 = $2.4 million.

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

Well, JViera, at least you said please. Thanks for your observation. Very witty with hint of terrets.

[thegrommit]

Originally posted by The_Legendary_Solid_Snake
I did thegrommit, please read my post again: 800,000 X $3 = $2.4 million.

And where exactly is that number coming from? Where are your figures to back up the assertion that sales of Thief (or any game) to Win98 users will exceed 800,000? Especially as less than 10% of PC gamers (http://steampowered.com/status/survey.html) run it?

And bear in mind the sales numbers I quoted previoulsy are combined for consoles and PC's. Console versions typically outsell the PC by a large margin - thus reducing the total number of PC copies (and the corresponding 10% of Win98 users) even further.

[edit] Just saw the $3 number.

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

Well, thegrommit, I believe I already said that these are arbitrary figures that are taken strictly for the sake of argument. My point was not that these numbers are taken from Forbes' Magazine, but rather that if you had to assume that at least that much was certain, you could be certain that that much was. I believe you already read at least 3 of the posts I made (and I really enjoy your comments -- they are always very well thought out), and I thought that I said I want to keep my statements as simple as I can. I already used one statistically based record (that of STEAM), and started to take off from there. Being a mechanic that is generally what I do. I find a factual piece of information and build off of it to achieve a paradox with a possible formulated answer.

Any who, You are correct, these figures are that of my mind -- and I thought I already made that clear. But, if you read my post again and see what I am actually trying to achieve by my statements, I'm sure you will see that I am really trying to say: If an absurdly low amount of people have 98SE, and an even much lower amount were to potentially purchase Thief III, then at the extreme least $1.5 million (no equations -- I'm just going even much, much lower than I proved through my last statistic) of pure potential profit could be made. I'm just saying that to me is worth making the win98 customer happy and still make a really good sum of profit.

One final thing (since we both saw the STEAM records) 60,000 win98 users purchased counter-strike. We know this because they are registered with STEAM. When I bought CS it was new for $49.99. So let's assume that the people making money from CS get about $3 (like assumed before) of total profit after middleman, support, continual upgrades, patches and maps (and anything else that could be said). That's 60 k X $3 = 180 k no strings attached. It's much lower than my last figures -- but how much new equipment, how many employ compensations can be paid for with this money? I'm betting a **** load. Let's face it, if they only were to get $2 k or so out of this I'd say that the argument I've been having with people is futile. But that shows right there that if these figures were true to Thief III, the developers could have the money they spilled into the project paid off and then some -- with the money for winXP and 2000 users as total profit. Can someone at least agree on that?

[thegrommit]

Originally posted by The_Legendary_Solid_Snake
Any who, You are correct, these figures are that of my mind -- and I thought I already made that clear. But, if you read my post again and see what I am actually trying to achieve by my statements, I'm sure you will see that I am really trying to say: If an absurdly low amount of people have 98SE, and an even much lower amount were to potentially purchase Thief III, then at the extreme least $1.5 million (no equations -- I'm just going even much, much lower than I proved through my last statistic) of pure potential profit could be made. I'm just saying that to me is worth making the win98 customer happy and still make a really good sum of profit.

And therein lies the difference between us. I based my case on past sales of similar games and published reports. Your "absurdly low" numbers? Gut feel? Finger in the air?

Win9x owners will have to face reality. Publishers have noticed that they are a small and rapidly diminishing segment of the market - one that costs proportionately more to support. They can upgrade, or explore the immense back catalog of PC games that still run on Win9x.

[edit] spelling, reworded last paragraph.

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

I am trying to be patient here. But I gave you a complement and you return with some childish smart-ass remark? I'd tell you what I think of you at this moment if I wouldn't be banned for stating it. Anyway, yes I've got my finger in the air -- can you guess which one? You believe that because what I am debating isn't written down on paper that it isn't so, or can't be? Before you post another insulting remark (and I do believe at the beginning of this thread I asked politely for no insults), think about what I'm trying to say. It's not on paper but it's there. That's what separates mechanics and paper pushers. They can only see what is written in a book to find an answer. Mechanics formulate an accurate or feasible answer and act on it. Thank-you for your reply.

[thegrommit]

Originally posted by The_Legendary_Solid_Snake
Anyway, yes I've got my finger in the air -- can you guess which one?

I let my earlier posts speak for themselves. As I'm sure yours speak for you.

Keep that finger flying. :rolleyes:

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

Hehe... Can't have night without the day, huh? You're a quick one bud, I'll give ya' that.

[JVieira]

Ahh, you are still in very deep denial it seems. I should have noticed that. All defensive and tirelessly rebutting everyone, on something so completely futile. I can't believe you think this is going to make any difference.

Oh well, you'll get over it eventually. :p

BTW, you may find this site interesting:

http://www.kleenex.com

[The_Legendary_Solid_Snake]

Wow, after all that don't forget to wipe. As the title of my thread states: Everyone is entitled to there own opinion. And as I politely asked: please don't through vulgarities in my direction (as you can see it just creates a hostile situation). And, if I seem to be too repetitive, that's just because certain people that reply to me don't know how to read and analyze.

Oh well, you'll grow up eventually.

BTW, you may find this site interesting:

http://www.charmin.com

One more thing, your right I am a bit defensive :D